Article Details

Research Database: Article Details

Citation:  Moore, C.L., Wang, N., Eugene-Cross, K., and Washington, A.L. (2016). Immigration trends’ impacts on state vocational rehabilitation agency minority application rates: An empirical forecast model demonstration study. Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation, 45 (2), 197-212.
Title:  Immigration trends’ impacts on state vocational rehabilitation agency minority application rates: An empirical forecast model demonstration study
Authors:  Moore, C.L., Wang, N., Eugene-Cross, K., and Washington, A.L.
Year:  2016
Journal/Publication:  Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation
Publisher:  IOS Press
DOI:  https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-160823
Full text:  http://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-vocational-rehabili...   
Peer-reviewed?  Yes
NIDILRR-funded?  No

Structured abstract:

Background:  Incessant migration trends of persons of color to the United States warrant the identification of promising forecast models to help state vocational rehabilitation agencies (SVRAs), policy makers, researchers, and advocates inform strategic plans, policy formulation, and research agenda development.
Purpose:  This study demonstrated and assessed the efficacy of two different multivariate empirical forecast models’ (i.e., Vector Autoregressive [VAR] model and Multivariable Grey Model [MGM]) ability to accurately predict immigration (Blacks [e.g., Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Cameroon], American Indians or Alaskan Natives [e.g., Canada, Mexico], Asians [e.g., China, India, Vietnam, Korea, Japan], Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islanders [e.g., the Philippines], and Latinos [e.g., Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Cuba, Dominican Republic] trends’ impact on new unduplicated application rates among minorities.
Study sample:  Nine years of Rehabilitation Services Administration (RSA)-911 case record data (fiscal year [FY] 2006 thru 2014) on SVRA applications and U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-year estimates (calendar year 2006 thru 2014) on foreign born persons were entered into the VAR model and MGM to test their predictive performance.
Findings:  The MGM was demonstrated to be superior to the VAR model in predictive accuracy. The MGM three-year forecast projected an upward curve trend trajectory in the percentage of new Black or African American, American Indian or Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Latino SVRA applicants for FYs 2015 thru 2017.
Conclusions:  The MGM can be considered for use by SVRAs as a promising tool to help them respond appropriately to the needs of new immigrants and other minority group members.

Disabilities served:  Multiple disabilities
Populations served:  Culturally diverse populations (e.g., African Americans, Native Americans, and non-English speaking populations)
Interventions:  Vocational rehabilitation